Last week Ethiopia’s military launched a surgical attack against small but strategic targets in Eritrea describing it as a “proportional response” against a proxy group that had been staging terrorist attacks with Eritrean assistance. Ethiopian government spokesman Shimeles Kemal was quoted by the international press justifying the strikes as retaliation against a shadowy rebel group claimed to have killed and kidnapped European tourists about two months ago in the Ethiopian region of Afar. Does the story sound a little familiar to the one heard in Kenya in October 2011? Yes! Kenya had to invade Somalia in an attempt to pacify the Al Shabaab terrorist group following similar incidents of several attacks on European aid workers and tourists in the northeastern Kenya. Initially, Kenya planned to finish the operation to capture the port city of Kismayu by December 2011, but failed miserably and as we speak, Kenya is part of the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) which is financed by the United Nations. Additionally, the Ugandan-led Amisom comprises official forces from Burundi and Djibouti, and technically, Ethiopia. Disappointingly, despite its high level of poverty, Eritrea is proving to be an issue in the Horn of Africa as it is the only nation that supports Al Shabaab, and last year things got so serious to the extent that Kenya had to level a diplomatic complaint at the UN in New York. Eritrea was believed to be sending supplies to Al Shabaab soon after the Kenyan troops launched the operation. Eritrea and Al Shabaab may be working together because they both have one common enemy, that is, Ethiopia. Al Shabaab believes that they have a duty to one day recapture the disputed territory of Ogaden on the Ethiopian border, and that is why Ethiopians will never allow Al Shabaab to settle in Mogadishu. Why did Ethiopia take two months to retaliate against Eritrea? Notably, it is not all about Al Shabaab and the killed tourists; these two poor countries have been at war before, first as an internal insurgency and secondly as a fully fledged war with Eritrea losing a piece of its land it wanted to liberate. Here is how it started. When the Italians left Eritrea in 1952, Ethiopia annexed the country in 1962, and that sparked a liberation war that lasted until 1991. Luckily for Eritreans, in the 1970s some Ethiopians started a rebellion to fight the communist government of military dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam, who now lives in exile in Zimbabwe. The two fighting rebel groups toppled Mengistu in 1991, then a referendum followed and in April 1993 Eritrea became independent but a border dispute inherited from the colonial era remained. That border dispute pushed the two countries into a grossly irresponsible war between 1998 and 2000 ending up killing almost 100,000 and burning several million dollars. Since 2000, tensions and even skirmishes at the border have been a permanent occurrence because Eritrea wants back its territory captured in 2000. In fact, at one time the International Court of Justice even ruled in favor of Eritrea but Ethiopia remained adamant. So Ethiopia is not clean in this matter, at least, but that does not justify whatever is going on between the two countries or its assistance to Al Shabaab. Ethiopia claims that it had no choice but to attack military posts used by the Eritrean government for training rebel groups, in particular the so-called Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (ARDUF). This is one small, unknown group that can disappear for years before resurfacing and attacking again. Now look at this: Ethiopia says Eritrea is training ARDUF so that it launches a proxy war against Ethiopia, but Eritrea says ARDUF doesn’t exist, but that Ethiopians are using it as a pretext to attack Eritrea. Then, if an attack happens, Eritrea tells Ethiopia to ask ARDUF claiming it is an Ethiopian problem since Afar belongs to Ethiopia. In the end nobody in the international community knows which is which. According to the Voice of America, Eritrea went as far as to describe the recent attacks as a “flagrant aggression” designed to divert attention from Ethiopia’s illegal occupation of Eritrean territories, but “wisely” the Eritrean government decided not to respond against its powerful neighbour. Right now, the animosity between the two countries is serious despite the fact that Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki are cousins. Last April, following an accusation that Eritrea had attempted to stage a high-profile bomb attack in Addis Ababa during an African Union summit, Zenawi stated in parliament that his government would actively support anyone trying to overthrow Afewerki. Can you imagine? Here comes the question: What is the problem between these Africans who have a lot in common? Why should an interstate conflict happen today in Africa? Frankly, these people need to sit down, talk and behave! Mr Matinyi is a consultant based in Washington, DC |
Ethiopia and Eritrea are on opposite sides of the Somalia conflictCould Ethiopia's attack on alleged rebel bases over the border inside Eritrea herald the start of a new war in the Horn of Africa?
Ethiopia says it carried out a raid on three camps belonging to a rebel group last Thursday.
A further raid was reported over the weekend, although this has been denied by Ethiopian officials.
These attacks have raised fears that this could spark another border war, similar to the conflict of 1998-2000, which left some 100,000 people dead.
So far, Eritrea appears keen to cool the situation, saying it will not strike back.
Eritrea's Minister of Information Ali Abdu told the BBC that his country would not retaliate following the Ethiopian raid.
"Those who rush to aggression are those who do not know what the life of people means," Mr Ali said.
Ethiopian sources suggest Eritrea, increasingly isolated from the international community and short of funds, is in no position to respond effectively.
The fall of Colonel Gaddafi's Libya deprived the Eritrean government of one of its few allies.
In December last year, the UN Security Council imposed tougher sanctions against Eritrea after its East African neighbours accused it of continuing to provide support to Somalia's Islamist militants of al-Shabab - who Ethiopian troops are currently fighting.
This has weakened Eritrea, which once was able to confront its much larger neighbour, despite having just five million citizens, compared to the 80 million Ethiopians.
So what lay behind the Ethiopian attacks?
Indications from Addis Ababa are that the background to the raid may be more complex than simply giving Eritrea-based rebels a bloody nose.
Three camps belonging to a faction of the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (Arduf) were attacked, in reprisal for an rebel raid on tourists in January that left five people dead.
Border troublesCertainly there are few tears being shed by Ethiopia for the approximately 50 Afar rebels who are thought to have been killed in the attack.
But Ethiopian observers suggest that other factors may have contributed to the raid.
A number of skirmishes are reported to have taken place in border villages in recent months, with some Ethiopians allegedly abducted by Eritrean forces.
Worryingly, the last war between the two countries in May 1998 was triggered by similar skirmishes.
Since that conflict ended, some border villages have been inhabited by members of the Eritrean opposition, with Ethiopia's backing.
These are in areas awarded to Ethiopia by the Algiers Peace Agreement of June 2000 and the findings of a subsequent Boundary Commission.
Eritrea has repeatedly called on the international community to enforce the Algiers Agreement and the Boundary Commission ruling, but Ethiopia has refused to allow this, insisting that there should be further talks on the border.
This has left the location of the border in dispute, opening the way to localised disputes.
Speaking for Eritrea, Mr Ali said he was not prepared to discuss the details of the current clashes.
"This is a smokescreen," he said, "which disguises Ethiopia's non-implementation of the findings of the Boundary Commission."
"This is a continuation of Ethiopian aggression and occupation of our territory, which has gone on for the last 10 years, with the support of the United States."
Difficult to predictBut unresolved border issues may not be the only reason for the clash.
There are Ethiopian plans to develop potash mines in the remote Danakil depression, near the border with Eritrea, with the help of the Canadian firm, Allana.
This would require building a railway from the Djibouti port of Tadjoura to the mines and the redevelopment of the port itself.
Allana reported earlier this month that it had received indications of investments worth $600m from investors in the project.
Ethiopia is keen for the development to take place, but is determined to ensure that it is not attacked by Afar rebels operating in the area.
Following the end of the border war in 2000, relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have remained tense, with both countries supporting each other's opposition movements.
On balance, most observers believe that a new war between the two countries looks unlikely, although both are ruled by mercurial leaders whose next moves have proved difficult to predict.
Ethiopia's Meles Zenawi and Eritrea's Isaias Afewerki fought together to oust Ethiopia's military ruler Haile Mariam Mengistu.
But just seven years after they achieved that goal in 1991, the pair sent their forces into battle against each other.