Friday, March 29, 2013

Eritrea: Scenarios for Future Transition - Africa Report N°200 28 Mar 2013

Eritrea: Scenarios for Future

Transition !!

Africa Report N°200 28 Mar 2013
Events in the last twelve months indicate growing discontent inside Eritrea’s tightly controlled regime, as well as deepening political and social divisions. While the mounting number of incidents suggests that President Isaias Afwerki’s regime is vulnerable, with increasing concerns over its ability to stay in power, the country would face numerous institutional, socio-economic and geopolitical obstacles during and after any transition. A careful assessment of these, as well as the role neighbours and the wider international community could play, is urgently needed to help avoid a violent power struggle that could prove dangerous for the Horn of Africa and potentially – as Eritrea is a littoral state – for the Red Sea region.
Isaias’s disappearance from public view for several weeks in April 2012 amid rumours of his illness and death made evident the lack of a succession plan. In March and May 2012, the Ethiopian army made incursions, revealing the Eritrean military’s disastrous state. Subsequently, a number of defections reached media attention: pilots flying the presidential plane absconded in October, the information minister (a close ally of the president) vanished in November, and the national football team requested asylum in December. Meanwhile several thousand – predominantly young – Eritreans fled every month, preferring the danger and uncertainty of refugee camps and illegal migration routes to the hopeless stasis at home. Then, on 21 January 2013, approximately 100 soldiers rebelled in the capital, Asmara, taking control of the information ministry for a day.
It is difficult to predict what an eventually post-Isaias Eritrea will look like: after and in spite of 21 years of forceful nation-building, fault lines, especially of ethnicity, region and religion (Christians versus Muslims) are still there, some deeper than before. Since the state lacks any institutional mechanisms for peaceful transition of power or even a clearly anointed successor, instability is to be expected, with the corrupt army the likely arbiter of who will rule next. But even the generals appear split over loyalty toward the president.
To reduce the risk of instability in Eritrea and its neighbourhood, a broad coalition of international actors should take precautionary moves, including immediate and decisive efforts to promote dialogue on avoidance of internal power struggles and mediation of a peaceful transition. This could lead to opening of political space and normalisation, both domestically and internationally. Any opportunity should be seized to bring Asmara in from the cold. UN-imposed sanctions (imposed for support of Al-Shabaab in Somalia and other destabilising activities) should be kept under active review. The European Union (EU) and U.S. should work with others, such as Qatar and South Africa, that have better relations with Eritrea’s ruling elite and could facilitate constructive engagement. Member states of the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) should welcome Eritrea back and encourage normalisation of relations.
If, as many believe, formal diplomacy remains blocked, Ethiopia, Sudan and Djibouti should engage with exiled opposition parties (including armed ethnic fronts) to encourage proactive engagement with dissidents in Asmara, promote dialogue and agreement by them not to use  force that could lead to a protracted conflict and have repercussions for the entire region.
This report examines the regime’s vulnerabilities, maps out six possible scenarios for a post-Isaias Eritrea and identifies the main risks and opportunities the country and the region would face. Concerned Western partners, neighbours and governments with special relations with Asmara could play a vital role in preventing a major humanitarian crisis or even the state’s collapse.
To avert chaos and further displacement of populations; bring Eritrea in from the cold and promote talks with President Isaias Afwerki and the current leadership
To regional and wider international partners:
1.  Accept Eritrea’s request to rejoin the Intergovernmental Agency for Development (IGAD), and so reactivate regional dialogue as per the organisation’s mandate.
2.  Re-evaluate UN Security Council sanctions on Eritrea in light of the latest UN Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea report, so as to incentivise improvements in Eritrean behaviour.
3.  Enhance the European Union (EU) Horn of Africa strategy to promote regional economic integration and dialogue through the mediation capacities of the EU Special Representative for the Horn of Africa, and include Red Sea security in his mandate.
In the event of a transition
To the U.S., EU and countries with special relations to Eritrea:
4.  Coordinate U.S. and EU efforts with countries that have special relations with Eritrea’s current leadership (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Uganda, South Sudan and China).
5.  Support a frank assessment of the country’s socio-economic situation and development needs, including disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration and security sector reform programs, as well as projects for the reintegration of asylum seekers scattered around the world.
6.  Engage Eritrea’s direct neighbours, with African Union (AU) leadership, regarding their strategic response if a transition occurs, and seek to preserve Eritrean national unity.
7.  Engage with the diaspora – including refugee youth and opposition groups – and promote their proactive engagement with an eventual new government.
8.  Promote dialogue with the new leadership and encourage a national conference to open space for inclusive political developments.
Nairobi/Brussels, 28 March 2013

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Gesendet: 8:24 Donnerstag, 28.März 2013
Betreff: I just saw it on CNN iReport: Eritrean Islamic Ghost Witch Hunt & Total Economic Bankrupt

Watch the Result of 30 years struggle
Eritrean Islamic Ghost Witch Hunt & Total Economic Bankrupt
1. Islamic Ghost Hunting in Asmara 2. Eritrean economy totally Bankrupt 3. Eritrea is Stateless I. Islamic Ghost Hunting in Asmara The Eritrean Regime is hunting the extremist suspected to turn...
Click the following link to view the full article:

Thursday, March 28, 2013

Eritrean Islamic Ghost Witch Hunt & Total Economic Bankrupt - CNN iReport

1. Islamic Ghost Hunting in Asmara 

2. Eritrean economy totally Bankrupt 
3. Eritrea is Stateless 
I. Islamic Ghost Hunting in Asmara 

The Eritrean Regime is hunting the extremist suspected to turn Eritrea and Ethiopia to an Islamic State. Isasias became the defendant of the Addis Ababa regime against the Islamist eventual take over. All this is regime’s attempt to divert the population from the continuing 21 January Revolution. 
The main accuseds are the Saudi & Qatar Government for giving 66 Million Dollar in cash for and an open check for this mission. 
The Arrested culprits for the Coup mission are 
Deqe Shaiel or know as Sons of Shale region, northern Eritrea 
1. Ali hajji once minister of industries as being 
2. Musetfa Nure Hussen 21 January Arrested 
3. Abdella Jabr 

Those who denounced the above are / Deq Semhar or Sons of Massawa 
1. Alamine Mohamed Said 
2. Ramadan Mohammed Nur 

Many Muslims are thrown to jail and many are send to work fields. 
II. Eritrean Total Bankrupt 
Since 1991 there has been no state to stabilize country’s economy. Eritrea is starving occupied with non functional liberated Zones. Salaries have not been paid for over 3 years. 
1. Asmara is in a continues Blackout. It has been a while since Electricity is unavailable in the country due to shortage of gasoline. 
2. No More Benzene people are walking even the buses are not functioning forget the Taxi. Some old Chariots are dragged with weak horses 
3. Lentils the Eritrean main dish is not found in the market 
4. No Bread there is no flours in the market 
5. Teff the local grain mostly imported from Ethiopia through Sudan is absent due to the shortage of foreign currency as a direct effect of the sanction taking its toll. 
6. Import export license has not been renewed the last 7 years 
7. There is no more bear in the country since there is a shortage of wheat except the smuggled out dated Heineken bear that has gone up to 180 Nacka a piece 
8. Nacka lost all is purchasing values 
$100 in Black Market 7000 Nacka 

III. Facts about Stateless Eritrea 
1. A colony for 50 +10 years 
2. Federated & Unified to Ethiopia 1952 
3. In 1991 Eritrea seceded after three decades of rebellion. 
4. Since 1998 Eritrea is at War with all its neighbors 
5. Harboring proxy warriors especially the notorious Al- Shabab. 
6. Torture ,imprisonment , thousands fleeing, human trafficking 
7. No religious freedom , 
8. The only university is closed transformed to prison 
9. Everybody is in the army, 
10. No Parliament, 
11. No election, 
12. No Working Constitution 
13. No functioning institution, 
14. No free press & all living journalists are in prison. 
15. Eritrea is called the North Korea of Africa 

Thousands of Eritrean protesters rally in Stockholm | Eritrea

 Thousands of  Eritrean-Swedes and Swedish citizens took to the streets of Stockholm on Friday for a rally against an increasingly politically influenced and hostile Swedish media, according to activists who attended the demonstration.

The demonstrators came together after a series of biased and demonizing coverage of Eritrea and Swedish-Eritreans was broadcasted by SVT, a television network based in Stockholm, and Expressen, a tabloid magazine infamous for fudging the facts and harassing Eritreans.

Although the crowd count could not be independently verified, organizers estimated nearly 2,500 protesters from across the country descended on the nation’s capital. In a show of solidarity, several demonstrators even came as far as Norway and Denmark to attend the rally.

A community under attack is now fighting back

On February 25, SVT aired a politically motivated documentary intended to vilify the hard working Swedish-Eritrean community.What resulted from this was a heinous arson attack against three Eritrean community centers within hours of SVT's broadcast.

Despite the arson being one of the largest terrorist attacks in Sweden's modern history, most major news agencies in the Scandinavian country brushed it aside, raising suspicion that the Swedish media may fear an investigation linking their media assault against Eritreans with the terrorist attack.

Long known for their patriotism and tight-knit community, the arson attack and media demonization against Eritrean-Swedes has sparked outrage among Eritreans worldwide. Although an investigation is still ongoing, most believe Expression and SVT should be held responsible.

Thousands of Eritrean demonstrators rally in Stockholm against a biased Swedish media - Credit: YPFDJ

Thousands of Eritrean demonstrators rally in Stockholm against a biased Swedish media - Credit: YPFDJ

Thousands of Eritrean demonstrators rally in Stockholm against a biased Swedish media - Credit: YPFDJ

For more photos of the demonstrations, please visit Young YPFDJ's photo albums.
Eritrean demonstrators in 1974 in New York city, who protested in support of Eritrea's independence
and against racism in America. Swedish-Eritreans are likely being targeted, at least to some extent, for their
skin color by the Swedish media in order to fan the flames of xenophobia.

Friday, March 15, 2013

AU commission to take up Swedish-Eritrean journalist’s case - Sudan Tribune: Plural news and views on Sudan

March 13, 2013 (ADDIS ABABA) - Media watchdog, Reporters Without Borders, said on Wednesday that, the African Union’s main human rights body has decided to investigate the case of imprisoned Swedish-Eritrean journalist Dawit Isaak.
Eritrean authorities detained Isaak in September 2001 for writing articles critical of the government and has since been held incommunicado.
He is one of the many journalists and reform-minded government figures who remain languishing in Eritrea’s underground detention centers since a government crack down in 2001.
The Swedish office of Reporters Without Borders has highly welcomed the decision of African Union human rights panel to probe Isaak’s case.-----------------
The press freedom group also commended the concerns shown by the newly-appointed Special Rapporteur for Eritrea over the situations of Eritrean journalists.
"It is important step forward and will increase the pressure on the Eritrean government" said Jonathan Lundqvist, president to the Swedish section of Reporters Without Borders.
Dawit Issaak’s case was referred to the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights on 27 October, by three European jurists.
Lundqvist says bringing the case to the AU panel would not only put more pressure on the Eritrean government but also will make the case an African issue.
The African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights will soon begin examining the case by first requesting explanations from the Eritrean government as to why the Red Sea nation breached the country’s law as well as several African and international human rights conventions the country is signatory for.
Established by the African Union (AU), the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights was designed to protect and promote human rights and interprets the African Charter.
Eritrea’s Supreme Court has in the past refused to hear the case although the government states that habeas corpus is a principle respected and that the country’s courts are independent.
International human rights organisations routinely label the country as one of the planet’s most repressive. Eritrea has for many years been ranked among the worst places to be a journalist, jailing more members of the press than any other African country
According to investigations revealed by Reporters Without Borders last August, four journalists, who were detained around the same time as Isaak, have died in prison.
Isaak is among dozens of journalists arrested during government crack down in 2001 along with 15 senior government officials who were also then arrested after criticizing President Isaias Afewerki and asking him to allow political reform following the 1998-2000 border war with Ethiopia.

Eritrea: Exit Eritrea - How Could It All End for Isaias Afewerki?

Afewerki's grip on power in Eritirea is showing signs of weakness. But will we see a coup, cosmetic reforms or even an uprising?
Ever since 1993, when Eritrea gained independence and the national assembly elected him president, Isaias Afewerki has ruled over the small East African nation. In these two decades, Afewerki has largely disregarded civil and political rights, jailing dissidents, neglecting to hold elections, banning opposition parties, and restricting freedom of movement.
Regionally, Eritrea became diplomatically isolated after disputes with Ethiopia over access to ports erupted into bloody conflict between 1998 and 2000. Many Eritreans have had to rely on food aid, and thousands of ordinary Eritreans have fled, with many finding themselves at themercy of human traffickers.
According to the likes of Human Rights Watch, Afewerki has turned Eritrea into one of the world's most repressive and isolated states. But after 20 years in power, recent events suggest the president may be losing his grip on power.
The possibility that Afewerki will remain a president for life is starting to weaken, and speculation has begun on what end his regime will eventually face. Below are three possibilities for how it could all end.
Countdown to a coup?
A coup might be the regime's most likely end. Recent high-profile emigrations suggest that President Afewerki is losing the trust and respect of former loyalists. These include his Information Minister, two air force officers (making their escape on the president's private jet), a leading eye surgeon, and a significant portion of the national football team.
Though details remain hard to verify, there also seems to have been afailed coup, mutiny or military protest on 21 January from within the armed forces, laying bare Afewerki's possibly weakening control of the military.
Afewerki responded with a series of arrests, and will no doubt hope any further potential critics have now been imprisoned or been strongly dissuaded from taking action. However, it is possible that the 21 January events will act as a catalyst for attempts on power, with potential rebels now viewing the regime as vulnerable.
Realistically, a coup led by genuine democratic reformers is difficult to imagine. Instead, the leaders would likely be long-standing members of the regime - probably from the pervasive military or security services.
Few individuals are likely to expose themselves to the considerable risks involved in a coup attempt, only to then contest power at the ballot box. Yet even a new dictatorship would likely show greater pragmatism than the Afewerki regime. Considering the country's perilous economic situation, there would probably be some attempt to end the country's current international isolation.
Implementing reform? The 16-year constitutional itch
After 16 years of waiting, it is evident that President Afewerki has no desire to ever implement the 1997 constitution. He has consistently shown himself unwilling to tolerate any form of opposition, and it is almost inconceivable that he would permit the existence of legitimate opposition parties.
The possibility of more limited reform rests on whether the mutiny and high-profile emigrations have had any psychological impact on the president. Following the lead of other dictators throughout history, he could seek to make limited democratic concessions in a bid to gain legitimacy. Yet his record overwhelming depicts him as a man who prefers to tighten his grip through force rather than cunning. His response is much more likely to be increased repression than pragmatic reform.
Popular uprising: an Eritrean Spring?
The probability of this scenario is the hardest to judge. Eritreans have long seen the Afewerki's People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) exercise power with little restraint, and will be aware of the danger of engaging in open protest.
Opposition groups within the country have been so harshly repressed that it is even hard to see where the necessary spark and organisation might come from.
Yet the Arab Spring spectacularly displayed that well-entrenched regimes can be overwhelmed by popular uprisings. In recent weeks, posters have appeared in the capital of Asmara calling for street protests.
This is an indication of an increasing willingness amongst some Eritreans to defy the regime, and suggests a belief that they may hold the power to end the country's woes.
The most intriguing question is whether Afewerki would be able to rely on his security forces if confronted by a mass uprising. The loyalty of young conscripts could certainly not be relied upon so, ultimately, much would rest on the decisions of senior officials. They would be forced to judge whether they were protecting a healthy or dying regime - and act accordingly.
AU Commission to Take Up Swedish-Eritrean Journalist's Case
Media watchdog, Reporters Without Borders, said on Wednesday that, the African Union's main human rights body has … see more »